New Port Richey, Florida Real Estate Blog

Economist says Florida Jobs Recovery may take until 2014? I disagree !!!

You can imagine how I felt seeing that headline in my FAR Newsletter.  UCF Economist Sean Snaith says it will take that long until we return to pre-recession levels.  Their main reasons cited were Housing and consumer spending.  A glut of housing and diminished consumer spending.  It could take even longer, perhaps never.

For the first time in 63 years there is a net OUTFLOW of residents.  Despite that the State just reached 11% unemployment, and the Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater MSA is about to break 12%.  The state of Florida had to borrow almost $1/2 Billion to meet unemployment payments.   Add onto that there are 5 people for every job posted on the Internet.

 Than you have the uncertainty of all the horrors coming out of Washington.

Mandatory Health insurance, a real possibility depending upon the size of your payroll = less capital for a business

Cap and Trade = from Obama's lips "electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket" = less capital for a business

Unless in perfect health, it is pretty much impossible to get a business loan = less capital for a business

I am seeing alot of hindrances to our recovery, instead of painful positive steps.  Although I do enjoy reading Realtors around the country, and Florida in particular, about how things are starting to turn.  They haven't in my Area, but state-wide and nation-wide it seems that the penny has indeed dropped.

 "The recession is over" because we finally had a quarter of growth.  My favorite part of that link is

"The big news Thursday was that the recession appears to be over, but if you believe that, you're probably an economist. Not a politician."

However, once the aforementioned pieces of legislation are resolved, be it as a law or to the circular file, atleast than Business will know what is coming and be able to adjust accordingly.  Until that happens, I think things are going to keep limping along in the big picture, 'recovery' or not.

The smart money says Obama staked his presidency on Healthcare reform.  Therefor some form of it will pass.  BUT, and it is a big butt, it all depends on the governor's races to be decided Tuesday in Virginia and New Jersey.  

If Virginia goes Republican it will give many Incumbent Democrats in both Houses of Congress pause.  

But if the Strongly Democratic State of New Joisey { ;-) I am from Nu Yawk, its how we tawk } was to go Republican, than the Democrats will view that as an out and out rebellion against Obama and his policies.  Whatever health care bill that passes would be seriously watered down

Love it, hate it.  but either way the coming weeks are set to be very interesting if you are a political junky

And in the end, I think the pundits, who did not see this crash coming, will be conservative when it comes to the recovery.  America is the people, and the people are not going to tolerate a poor economy for very much longer.  But that will not happen until there is a change in sentiment, which can change on a dime or trickle in.  Again, interesting times, to be sure.